2012 Formula One Side Competition

[tubeguru]

By the way, I'll update the team mate thing as the season goes on, so you can see how you're doing. I'm also going to put all the predictions into a separate file so they're easier to refer back to as this thread gets longer throughout the season.

[hopeful traveller]

I think that my predictions were hopeless there...

[tubeguru]

There are 20 races to go. Who knows what will happen?

[tubeguru]

With regard to the close battle/walkover question, I have decided the easiest way to determine which it turns out to be by having a "rolling update" on the situation.

Every four races, if the championship leader is 30 or more points ahead of his nearest rival, then the championship will enter "walkover" mode. If the gap is fewer than 30 points, the status will be "close battle". We then have four more races and the situation is appraised again, and so on.

Whichever status prevails after the fifth such update (after race 20), that will be the result of the championship. I chose 30 points because it's slightly more than a race win is worth, and if a driver has just over a race win's worth of points as an advantage, then they are doing quite well.

Should anyone disagree with me, and feel that it should be a different number (50 points for two wins for example), then argue away ...

[Root]

I don't see the point in having the rolling updates if it is only after the last round that the final decision is made. But if you want to do them just out of interest, you should change the scale a little bit to reflect the different parts of the season. Or just determine it based on when the championship is decided. Last two races = close battle, any earlier = walkover?

[tubeguru]

It's a tricky one. I think we'll all have some idea how it's playing out as it goes along, so I'll ditch my previous idea and call it as my initial reaction takes me at the end.

I reckon it's going to be "close" this year. No walkover for Vettel methinks.

[tubeguru]

OK, so with one race in the bag, let's see how it's panning out early doors (as they say):

Who will win the Driver's Championship?

Tubeguru's refusal to be drawn into the Vettel hype takes an early lead in this category, thanks for a good win for JB. It's still anyone's game though ...

Who will win the Constructor's Championship?

GKR went for McLaren, so he takes the champagne for this race.

Will Michael Schumacher win a GP?

Still no sign on number 92. I think we might be safe with this prediction.

What will Kimi Raikkonen's highest finishing position be?

Sam gets lucky with the last lap shenanigans that saw Raikkonen somehow scrape 7th place. I doubt it will remain his best result all season though.

Who will be top rookie? This year's rookies are Charles Pic, Jean-Eric Vergne and Romain Grosjean.

Grosjean was the favourite, and after qualifying you'd have put your mortgage on him finishing this race in front of the others. But would you Adam and Eve it, Jean-Eric Vergne only goes and finishes 11th, taking the top spot for now. Grosjean got Pastored, and Pic has a crap car. This could be close.

Which of the three "new" teams will finish highest in the Constructor's Championship? If none of these teams scores points, the most successful will be the team with the highest finishing position. The teams in question are the three newest teams in F1: Caterham, HRT and Marussia.

Another no-brainer for Caterham, but once again the favourites fell by the wayside, allowing Marussia to take a splendid 14-15 finish. So 14th is the position to beat for the newbies. HRT can't even START a race at this point ...

Which driver will be the first to be replaced this season for any reason?

Kartikeyan remains the popular choice for this one, but it's too early to say. He may not even start a race at this rate.

What will be the year's biggest row (technical/personal/whatever - your choice)?

With no juicy driver punch-ups developing yet, I suppose the potential Lotus protest over the Mercedes F-Duct rear wing takes first blood. But this category has plenty of time to get tasty. With regard to Massa, Senna could be the new Hamilton ...

How many races will take place before Red Bull and/or Ferrari announce that they're dropping Mark Webber and/or Felipe Massa respectively for 2013?

Too early to say, but Massa is definitely on borrowed time at Ferrari. Scrxisi has the lowest number of races with 12, and he could score with that on current form.

Driver's Championship: walkover or close battle? I will determine whether a "walkover" or "close battle" was achieved at the end of the season.

Button is only seven points ahead of Vettel, so technically, it's a close battle!

Will all the teams complete the season (i.e. field two cars at all 20 GPs)?

Looking good so far, but HRT are definitely the big worry for making it to the end, even at this early stage.

Who will be leading the Driver's Championship after the German GP (the halfway point of the season)?

Pass.

What will be the most exciting and boring races of the year?

Well, Australia wasn't boring, but I reckon there's more in the bag for future races, especially with the rainy European/monsoon East Asia races to come.

Your own prediction that is not covered by anything above. Take a shot at something that will or won't happen this year that isn't covered by the previous 13 questions and see if you strike it lucky!

None of the long shots have come to fruition yet, but there's plenty of time.

Team mate head to heads:

These are based on who finishes higher of the two team mates in each race. A non-finish for both will be decided on qualifying position.

Button 1, Hamilton 0
Vettel 1, Webber 0
Alonso 1, Massa 0
Rosberg 1, Schumacher 0
Raikkonen 1, Grosjean 0
di Resta 1, Hulkenberg 0
Koboyashi 1, Perez 0
Ricciardo 1, Vergne 0
Maldonaldo 1, Senna 0
Kovalainen 1, Petrov 0
Glock 1, Pic 0
de la Rosa 1, Kartikeyan 0 (although they didn't start, DLR went faster in qualifying)

[tubeguru]

OK, so two races down and here's how it's panning out.

Who will win the Driver's Championship?

Well that's thrown it open a bit. Surely Ferrari won't win more races than McLaren or Red Bull. Will they?!

Who will win the Constructor's Championship?

Still close at the top, so who can say?

Will Michael Schumacher win a GP?

STILL no sign on number 92.

What will Kimi Raikkonen's highest finishing position be?

Kimi gets 5th place, so Sam is out of this one now. Anyone who said 5th or above is still in for a point.

Who will be top rookie? This year's rookies are Charles Pic, Jean-Eric Vergne and Romain Grosjean.

Grosjean bites the dust again, Pic finishes nowhere, and Vergne does the business with 8th place. So the new target is now Vergne with four points.

Which of the three "new" teams will finish highest in the Constructor's Championship? If none of these teams scores points, the most successful will be the team with the highest finishing position. The teams in question are the three newest teams in F1: Caterham, HRT and Marussia.

You had your money on Caterham again didn't you? This time they only just managed to scrape best new-team finish with 16th. This means that Marussia's 14th in Australia is still the score to beat.

Which driver will be the first to be replaced this season for any reason?

Who had Massa?

What will be the year's biggest row (technical/personal/whatever - your choice)?

I think the ever-tedious saga of Christian Horner protesting everything that any other team does is all we have to go on at the moment, so the Mercedes W-duct rear wing thing is still top of the agenda for me. Why can't he just admit that Red Bull have lost their edge with the loss of the off-throttle diffuser?

How many races will take place before Red Bull and/or Ferrari announce that they're dropping Mark Webber and/or Felipe Massa respectively for 2013?

The ice is getting thinner under Mass'a wheels ...

Driver's Championship: walkover or close battle? I will determine whether a "walkover" or "close battle" was achieved at the end of the season.

The gap at the top of the table has gone from seven to five points, with two different drivers taking over. So far it's a close one.

Will all the teams complete the season (i.e. field two cars at all 20 GPs)?

All present and correct so far.

Who will be leading the Driver's Championship after the German GP (the halfway point of the season)?

Pass (still).

What will be the most exciting and boring races of the year?

Australia was middling, but Malaysia wins "best race" for now following the rain and the Alonso/Perez result. China has a lot to live up to.

Your own prediction that is not covered by anything above. Take a shot at something that will or won't happen this year that isn't covered by the previous 13 questions and see if you strike it lucky!

Still nothing, but there was always scope for scrxisi's safety car crash to happen, and the race came close to being started under the safety car, giving me a point. Raikkonen is still driving without the assistance of alcohol ...

Team mate head to heads:

These are based on who finishes higher of the two team mates in each race. A non-finish for both will be decided on qualifying position.

Button 1, Hamilton 1
Vettel 1, Webber 1
Alonso 2, Massa 0
Rosberg 1, Schumacher 1
Raikkonen 2, Grosjean 0
di Resta 2, Hulkenberg 0
Koboyashi 1, Perez 1
Ricciardo 1, Vergne 1
Maldonaldo 1, Senna 1
Kovalainen 1, Petrov 1
Glock 2, Pic 0
de la Rosa 2, Kartikeyan 0

Roll on China ...

[hopeful traveller]

One more question on the close/walkover battle:

2005?

[Steeevooo]

Where's the question?

[hopeful traveller]

Where's the question?

Is 2005 a close battle or walkover?

You're more pedantic than my dad...

[tubeguru]

Well the final result suggests a relative walkover, but you have to consider how it panned out over the course of the season. A season can be close all the way up to the last couple of races, when a driver suddenly scores two or three wins with his rivals finishing nowhere. This gives a final result which suggests he won it easily, whereas he was fighting hard all season, with not much between them until those last few races.

I think 2005 was close all the way through, but Alonso was always in control of the situation. On the other hand, 2002 could in no way be considered a close battle, as Ferrari even had to resort to telling Barrichello to move over and let Schumacher win in Hungary, despite there being no way he could lose the championship that year. I think the closest battles would have been the seasons in the '60s and '70s.

[Root]

Räikkönen should have become the WDC in 2005. It was the poor reliability of his McLaren which cost him. So I agree with Neil; the score might suggest it was a walkover but it was actually a relatively close battle. Both Alonso and Räikkönen took seven victories, and the result of any given race was not easy to predict like it was last season.

I guess with this season we'll just have to wait and see how it "feels", rather than putting any set rules in place to determine whether it was close or a walkover. If my guess had been close, then we wouldn't need to have this discussion at all

[tubeguru]

The way I've decided to look at it this season is to take each race as it comes, and see how it affects the championship.

So far we've had two completely different results from two races. So the season so far is a close battle, as no one has rocketed into a massive lead. Hamilton could easily have had 50 points by now, and if the other positions behind him had been significantly different in both races (as they have this year), he could be leading by over 20 points. That would be leading us in the direction of "walkover".

Looks like the loss of Red Bull's off-throttle diffuser and flexing front wings have given us the season we finally deserve.

[tubeguru]

Three races have passed us by, but are we any nearer to being able to predict what our predictions with bring us?

Who will win the Driver's Championship?

It's anyone's game.

Who will win the Constructor's Championship?

McLaren look more consistent that Red Bull at the moment, but this season has yet to settle down.

Will Michael Schumacher win a GP?

He could well have done something today, but Rosberg was too quick for him, as was the pit release system ...

What will Kimi Raikkonen's highest finishing position be?

I was cruising to victory in this category, with Kimi in 2nd place but then his tyres fell off, so everyone who was in it at the start of this race is still in with a chance.

Who will be top rookie? This year's rookies are Charles Pic, Jean-Eric Vergne and Romain Grosjean.

Gorsjean takes eight points from this race, moving him ahead in the "rookie" battle. I think he'll now stay there.

Which of the three "new" teams will finish highest in the Constructor's Championship? If none of these teams scores points, the most successful will be the team with the highest finishing position. The teams in question are the three newest teams in F1: Caterham, HRT and Marussia.

Marussia's 14th place in Australia is still the score to beat for these teams.

Which driver will be the first to be replaced this season for any reason?

Massa did better today, but he'll need to go some to prevent an early exit. Having said that, all those pay drivers at the back mean that any of half a dozen drivers could be on their way home early.

What will be the year's biggest row (technical/personal/whatever - your choice)?

No obvious issues arising from this weekend. Bahrain is ON and Horner has shut up about the Mercedes' legality. Nothing else to report.

How many races will take place before Red Bull and/or Ferrari announce that they're dropping Mark Webber and/or Felipe Massa respectively for 2013?

No further news on this.

Driver's Championship: walkover or close battle? I will determine whether a "walkover" or "close battle" was achieved at the end of the season.

Given that the championship leader has finished third in every race this year, we're in for a close battle this time out.

Will all the teams complete the season (i.e. field two cars at all 20 GPs)?

Still all there.

Who will be leading the Driver's Championship after the German GP (the halfway point of the season)?

Pass (still).

What will be the most exciting and boring races of the year?

Both China and Malaysia were good races, and I was tempted to put Malaysia ahead due to the rain and the unpredictable result. But China just seemed to have stuff going on all the time. So I'm going to rank the races so far thus:

1. China
2. Malaysia
3. Australia

Your own prediction that is not covered by anything above. Take a shot at something that will or won't happen this year that isn't covered by the previous 13 questions and see if you strike it lucky!

As the Bahrain GP is back on, no points look like being scored in this category for a while.

Team mate head to heads:

These are based on who finishes higher of the two team mates in each race. A non-finish for both will be decided on qualifying position.

Button 2, Hamilton 1
Vettel 1, Webber 2
Alonso 3, Massa 0
Rosberg 2, Schumacher 1
Raikkonen 2, Grosjean 1
di Resta 3, Hulkenberg 0
Koboyashi 2, Perez 1
Ricciardo 1, Vergne 2
Maldonaldo 1, Senna 2
Kovalainen 1, Petrov 2
Glock 3, Pic 0
de la Rosa 3, Kartikeyan 0

And with that, it's off to the snooze-fest that is Bahrain.