tubechallenge.com

greatkingrat wrote:The station missing was Limehouse. Actually this is a problem with Matt's R15 generator as it does not seem to be in the system at all.

Ah, this would mean that my table is wrong again . I counted the total number of stations from Matt's R15 generator, but counted the DLR stations from the tube map. So, N = 142 and m = 24.

If there is no redraw, N = 141 and m = 23 (as Peter had correctly used before):

P( k = 0 ) = 7.21923%
P( k = 1 ) = 22.139%
P( k = 2 ) = 29.8667%
P( k = 3 ) = 23.4468%
P( k = 4 ) = 11.9405%
P( k = 5 ) = 4.16274%
P( k = 6 ) = 1.02176%
P( k = 7 ) = 0.178841%
P( k = 8 ) = 0.0223552%
P( k = 9 ) = 0.00197833%
P( k = 10 ) = 0.000121477%
P( k = 11 ) = 4.99351e-06%
P( k = 12 ) = 1.29142e-07%
P( k = 13 ) = 1.86794e-09%
P( k = 14 ) = 1.13071e-11%

If there is a redraw, N = 142 and m = 24:

P( k = 0 ) = 6.50748%
P( k = 1 ) = 20.8239%
P( k = 2 ) = 29.3696%
P( k = 3 ) = 24.1544%
P( k = 4 ) = 12.9159%
P( k = 5 ) = 4.73978%
P( k = 6 ) = 1.22803%
P( k = 7 ) = 0.227589%
P( k = 8 ) = 0.0302267%
P( k = 9 ) = 0.00285326%
P( k = 10 ) = 0.000187714%
P( k = 11 ) = 8.30989e-06%
P( k = 12 ) = 2.3282e-07%
P( k = 13 ) = 3.67369e-09%
P( k = 14 ) = 2.44616e-11%

So, from a statistical point of view, redrawing the stations to include Limehouse would lower the probability of drawing no DLR stations.

Mitchell&BrownLook wrote:I'll also add that 0.0000000000003% is equivalent to a 1 in one quadrillion chance. Winning Euro Millions is 1 in 76,275,360.

It's funny you should mention that - I was thinking about how it compared with winning the National Lottery. To put it into perspective, there is more chance of drawing 12 DLR stations than winning the jackpot in the Euro Millions.

mps247 wrote:

Mitchell&BrownLook wrote:I'll also add that 0.0000000000003% is equivalent to a 1 in one quadrillion chance. Winning Euro Millions is 1 in 76,275,360.

It's funny you should mention that - I was thinking about how it compared with winning the National Lottery. To put it into perspective, there is more chance of drawing 12 DLR stations than winning the jackpot in the Euro Millions.

So on Saturday if we all leave Queensway heading for a dozen DLR stations, we'll be popping into the newsagents nearest the pub to get a ticket for the next Friday's draw!

scrxisi wrote:I've done a thorough check - all stations are in there. I had Limehouse marked as just an NR station for some reason... :S

Does this still require a redraw though?

If it was listed as an NR station it still wouldn't have been a contender to appear with a DLR+LU R15 configuration.

joy54 wrote:

scrxisi wrote:I've done a thorough check - all stations are in there. I had Limehouse marked as just an NR station for some reason... :S

Does this still require a redraw though?

If it was listed as an NR station it still wouldn't have been a contender to appear with a DLR+LU R15 configuration.

Yes, I think it would be better if there was a redraw. I am not sure I understand your second sentence. Limehouse, being a DLR and NR station, is a contender to appear in a DLR+LU R15 configuration. Including it will result in a slightly greater chance (about 0.7% greater) of drawing a configuration with at least one DLR station present, so its exclusion has skewed the result a little.

It would be annoying if the original configuration featured at least one DLR station, and the redraw, if the BERC decided it would be necessary, yielded none! It's possible... although it is more likely to be the other way around.

mps247 wrote:

joy54 wrote:

scrxisi wrote:I've done a thorough check - all stations are in there. I had Limehouse marked as just an NR station for some reason... :S

Does this still require a redraw though?

If it was listed as an NR station it still wouldn't have been a contender to appear with a DLR+LU R15 configuration.

Yes, I think it would be better if there was a redraw. I am not sure I understand your second sentence. Limehouse, being a DLR and NR station, is a contender to appear in a DLR+LU R15 configuration. Including it will result in a slightly greater chance (about 0.7% greater) of drawing a configuration with at least one DLR station present, so its exclusion has skewed the result a little.

I was basically stating in the second sentence, that originally Matt had only included Limehouse as an NR station and therefore in the original draw (DLR+LU), Limehouse would not have been in the hat to be picked.

I am still completely bemused as to how you lot ever get round to doing these challenges with all the anal arguing you do over the rules ...

The BERC has decided that no re-draw will be done, as the BERC can't be bothered. Therefore the starting station is still Queensway and we all know that we don't have to visit Limehouse, although there is quite a good chance that we may all pass through Limehouse at some point. I'm sure one of you clever ones can work out the probabilty of passing through Limehouse?
See you all on Saturday 12:45 at Queensway.

Soup Dragon wrote:The BERC has decided that no re-draw will be done, as the BERC can't be bothered.

That's more like it (you big BERC).

tubeguru wrote:I am still completely bemused as to how you lot ever get round to doing these challenges with all the anal arguing you do over the rules ...

Because you can't plan a R15 in advance we have to do something else instead - discussing/arguing fits the gap nicely in my opinion

scrxisi wrote:I'm looking 50/50 at the moment, due to a back strain I've had since Wednesday that isn't going away. Feels a little better today so hopefully it'll clear up overnight...

Fingers crossed for you.......

I might be there too, depending on money/hangover...

i won't be there unfortunately. events have collided on this weekend and it's pretty much the only one all summer i absolutely cannot make the trip.

scrxisi wrote:I'm looking 50/50 at the moment, due to a back strain I've had since Wednesday that isn't going away. Feels a little better today so hopefully it'll clear up overnight...

What has Sam been doing to you?

Yeah, don't blame me... he caused this one himself!!

Sam wrote:Yeah, don't blame me... he caused this one himself!!

Over exuberant self love?